On Thursday, former Needham analyst Spencer Bogart, famed for predicting the sub-25 percent chance of the U.S Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approving a Bitcoin ETF, published a blog post estimating that bitcoin’s market cap could reach “well-beyond $100 billion”.

Bogart has recently left his position as Vice President of Equity Research at Needham where he published many investment reports focusing on Bitcoin, including coverage of
Barry Silbert’s Bitcoin Investment Trust. He has joined Blockchain Capital as managing director and head of research.

Launched in the fall of 2013, Blockchain Capital is a startup by Brock Pierce and co-founders Bart Stephens and Brad Stephens. The venture capital firm has invested in 42 companies including Abra, Alphapoint, Bitaccess, Bitfury, Bitgo, Bitpesa, BTCC, Chain, Civic, Coinbase, Gem, itbit, Kraken, Ledgerx, Stampery, Terion, Wave, and Xapo.

Tremendous Growth by All Stats

Bogart describes Bitcoin as “a quintessential disruptive technology that is moving from smaller and harder to serve markets toward more mainstream, high-value markets”, adding that:

Time and time again, Bitcoin has proven itself useful within market segments that are otherwise difficult or impossible to serve.

In addition, he observes that “Over the past few years, bitcoin has also grown tremendously by nearly all measurable stats”. He named two of his favorite indicators.

The first is the ‘estimated USD transaction volume’ which he said is “a reasonable proxy for economic activity of the Bitcoin network”, and its daily economic activity has more than quadrupled (CAGR 160%+) over the past 18 months. “Simply stated, Bitcoin has gained significant economic momentum”, he wrote.

The second of his favorite indicators is the ‘Bitcoin network hash rate’, which measures the computing power that is securing the Bitcoin network. “As is readily observed, this metric has increased five-fold since the beginning of 2016 (300% CAGR)”, he revealed, citing that “this amount of computing power is thousands of times more powerful than the world’s top-500 supercomputers combined”. While not a direct comparison, it indicates that the amount of computing power helping to secure the Bitcoin network is immense, Bogart conveyed.

Potential Market Cap of $100B+

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